Elections. Presidential elections. Sunday, here in the lovely Ukraine, people will go out en masse to take a second stab at voting in a new president. Round 1 of Ukrainian presidential elections 2010 (January 17) did not create the margin necessary to secure the win, and so, Sunday, February 7, we are holding a run-off. (Sidebar — Please, note that both election days in question were and are on a Sunday. SUNDAY. Insert subtle suggestion that blatantly hints at the fact that the United States is not better… such as… In the States, elections are held on Tuesdays. TUESDAYS!?). While, in my opinion, presidential elections are always quite important, there are all sorts of elements flying around in the background of these elections that make them rather huge.
The last Ukrainian presidential elections, held in 2004, were riddled with chaos, scandal, chemical poisoning of candidates, and well, revolution. The Orange Revolution. Viktor Yushchenko rode into the saddle of president on the wave of said revolution, promising modernization, democracy, and a general westernization of Ukraine. Interestingly enough, both of the current candidates at one time or another served as his prime minister. Riding the Orange wave into office with Yushchenko, Yulia Timoshenko filled the chair first. After some political hiccups, she was replaced by the president’s former rival Viktor Yanukovych. For obvious reasons, this partnership was not ideal, thus Timoshenko regained her cushy seat. I will spare you all of the sticky details, but Ukraine is not exactly thriving. Development can be seen in some areas, but the economy is in a shambles and Ukraine continues to struggle for democracy.
The candidates…
It might be safe to say that they could not be more different. Woman versus man. East versus west. Democracy versus authoritarianism. Ukraine versus Russia. Timoshenko, current prime minister, does her best to continue riding on her wave of democracy while separating herself from the bad taste that Yushchenko, the current president, is leaving in the mouths of the masses. She campaigns on a Ukraine for Ukrainians platform, speaking of Ukraine’s new path to democracy. On the flip side of the coin, Yanukovich is promoting a rebuilding of Ukraine’s economic and industrial base. He promises a Ukraine for the people. She is the liberal left leaning candidate. He is the more conservative, reestablish the principles of the right and Ukraine will thrive, candidate.
In the end, regardless of their platforms, it seems that it all comes down to Russia. Ukraine is very divided between the idea of Ukraine as a strong, independent, Ukrainian state, and Ukraine as a economically thriving and stable Ukrainian state with undeniably strong and important Russian roots. Yanukovich is pro-Russia. He promises to make Russian the second national language and redevelop ties with Russia to aid in rebuilding economic and political stability. Ironically, he is from eastern Ukraine, though he stands as the voice of western Ukraine. Timoshenko, is from western Ukraine, although she has done quite well to project her self as an eastern Ukrainian. She is fluent in Ukrainian, dies her brunet locks blonde, and is the perfect image of a strong and intelligent Ukrainian woman. She is the voice of eastern Ukraine.
Who will win, you ask? Yanukovich pulled in 35% and some odd percent of the vote in the first round of voting to Timoshenko’s 25% percent, but, in the end, this may not be an indication of his victory. While most have issues with holding on to a candidate who was so tied to the last presidential administration (Yulia), Ukrainians value their political independence from Russia and they seem to really want a substantive democracy. On the flip side, the average Ukrainian struggles to function economically and views a strong relationship with Russia as their country’s only means to become economically stable. With Timoshenko, the people will have political independence, a chance at democracy, while they struggle to feed, clothe, and house their families. With Yanukovich, they will again find economic stability and success, but they will sacrifice a bit of their independence, in turn sacrificing their Ukrainian identity.
I project that Victor Yanukovich will be the next president of Ukraine. With that, I believe that the Orange Revolution and its promise of democracy will become a thing of the past to be looked at longingly in years to come. The meaningful democracy that these people yearn for will slip through the cracks and Ukraine will become all the more like Russia’s pseudo-democratic clandestine authoritarian state. I hope that I am wrong.




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